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Start with a question
Is liquidity tightening?
Central-bank balance sheets, fiscal flows, and funding plumbing
Where is the rate path heading?
Policy rates, Treasury curves, and real yields
What leads: growth or inflation?
Activity, labor, prices, and energy
Where is market fragility building?
Credit stress, risk appetite, and crowding
Where is the inflation impulse in the pipeline?
Energy → producer → consumer services → shelter → expectations
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Liquidity & Policy
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Inflation
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5
Commodities & Positioning
Agriculture & Softs
9
CFTC Positioning & Crowding
32
CFTC Open Interest Levels
25
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